Will Climate Change Create the Conditions for a “Great Leveling”?

By M. Peterson

2025 has already been a turbulent year, and looks set to continue that way. It began in January with the wildfires that engulfed Los Angeles county, killing at least 29 people and forcing more than 200,000 to evacuate. Up to 16,000 homes and businesses — many owned by extremely wealthy individuals — were destroyed, causing an estimated economic loss of between 135-150 billion. Added to this damage was the burning of lithium-ion batteries and synthetic materials in homes and properties, which created toxic smoke. The ongoing effects on the health of the population and the environment are yet to be fully discovered. It has been described as the costliest wildfire in US history.

Catastrophic events such as these have unpredictable flow-on effects. In his book the Great Leveler, Walter Scheidel examines the history of inequality, and the forces in previous eras that have reduced it. Scheidel identifies four main types of violent disruptions that have historically reduced inequality, which he calls the “Four Horsemen of Leveling.” These include: large-scale wars that mobilise entire populations and resources; lethal pandemics that significantly reduce populations; the collapse of state institutions and governance; and revolutionary movements which overthrow existing social and economic structures.

Scheidel argues that these violent events have been the primary drivers of reducing inequality throughout history. His book contrasts these periods of turmoil with stable and economically complex societies where an elite class tends to emerge and maintain a disproportionate share of wealth, perpetuating high levels of inequality.

The most notable example Scheidel cites of a catastrophic pandemic leading to reduced inequality is the bubonic plague of the 14th Century. Colloquially known as the Black Death, this pandemic killed an estimated 25 to 50 million people, resulting in the deaths of between 30% and 60% of Europe’s entire population at the time, and approximately 33% of the population of the Middle East.

This population collapse led to a series of economic and social shifts, including labour shortages. The decimation of the working-age population increased the bargaining power of the workers who survived, leading to higher wages and better working conditions. In Western Europe, these labour shortages contributed to the decline of serfdom. Workers were able to demand more freedom and better terms, leading to a more mobile and empowered workforce. More land and resources became available per capita, leading to a redistribution of wealth as the surviving population was able to claim more resources.

The dramatic changes in the social and economic structure led to social upheaval and conflicts between different social classes. This period of instability further contributed to the leveling of wealth and power.

Will the climate crisis prove to be a similar “great leveler”? In my view, the challenges to human civilisation presented by climate change will force us to act collectively. We need to begin thinking and acting collectively now, and we need to have a positive vision for the future of society that inspires people, so that a majority of the population do not get led down the dark path of scapegoating minority groups such as climate refugees and marginalised communities.

We need an alternative based on caring for everyone — and this means we need to reduce inequality. The dangerous minority threatening our collective future is the billionaire class, not impoverished people trying to escape wildfires, droughts, floods and famines. This is especially true in Aotearoa, which is likely to be one of the safest places on a rapidly warming planet.

Climate change affects everyone, but the impacts are not felt equally across different social groups. The most severe harms from climate change fall disproportionately upon poorer and more vulnerable communities. These communities are often less able to prepare for and recover from climate-related events such as heat waves, poor air quality, flooding, and other impacts.

A 2021 report by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) highlights that ethnic minority communities, as well as those with lower income and educational attainment, are particularly vulnerable to the greatest impacts of climate change. These groups are more likely to live in areas with higher projected increases in extreme temperature-related deaths, childhood asthma diagnoses, and reductions in work hours due to extreme temperatures. Additionally, they often have higher participation in weather-exposed industries, such as construction and agriculture, which are especially vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. In order to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, we need to be focusing on redistributing wealth and power to multi-racial working class communities.

Awareness must be raised of the increased threat of plagues and pandemics. A perfect storm has been created by the increase in temperature and humidity, which means that species that carry tropical diseases like mosquitos can start to spread to new environments.  A loss of biodiversity makes it easier for disease-carrying species to thrive, as they may no longer have as many natural predators to keep their numbers in check. The rapid expansion of human populations into new areas increases the risk of zoonotic diseases from contact between wild animals and people. International travel leads to new diseases spreading more rapidly than in the past. Densely-populated urban areas with inadequate infrastructure further increase the ability of communicable diseases to spread. The overuse of antibiotics has led to greater difficulty treating infections. The combination of these factors is what makes another pandemic — and great societal upheaval resulting from it — more likely to occur.

Large-scale war is also looking more likely. We are already seeing horrors in Palestine as western powers continue to give open support to Israel’s genocide, which is now expanding to the West Bank during the extremely shaky ‘ceasefire’ in Gaza. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in its third year. Tensions between the great powers have been escalating for years, and Trump’s sabre-rattling towards China is not a promising sign for world peace and stability. Australia and New Zealand could be on the front lines of any proxy war — god forbid a full-scale war — between the United States and China in the Pacific.

Climate change and increasing resource scarcity will make wars even more likely. In particular, shocks to the global food supply change, and shortages in the water supply will compel states to fight for their own interests. It will take a sustained movement for peace and global cooperation to get us through the rest of the century without witnessing the most deadly and devastating global conflict in human history.

A combination of these factors — the certainty of climate catastrophe, and the increased risk of plague and war — could lead to revolutionary change. As socialists, we do not have to create great upheaval in order to pave the way for the change we want to see in the world. But we do have to be ready to face it effectively. These conditions could just as easily — perhaps more easily in the current climate — lead to the rise of ecofascism. We have to build organisations ready to fight for a world that will benefit all people. The fascists are preparing — on the left, we need to get our act together.

The crises we are facing as a species feel overwhelming if we think about them from an individual perspective. Collective action based on solidarity is the only way forward.

In the socialist movement, empowering people to lead from below is essential. This involves fostering an environment where comrades feel confident and capable of influencing outcomes in the actions they are involved in, regardless of their position. Trust forms the foundation for productive dialogue and collaboration. Building responsive relationships with others in our community groups will allow trust to grow. It is vital to ensure that everyone has an opportunity to contribute. Inclusivity fosters a sense of belonging, and encourages diverse perspectives, which can lead to more innovative solutions.

We can all be leaders in our own way and model the behaviours and attitudes that align with our organisation’s mission and vision, inspiring others to follow suit.

We must focus on a collective vision for a better world, while being prepared for all eventualities. Together, we can build our capacity for collective action, and fight for a future that works for the many, not the few.

M. Peterson is an activist from Auckland. She is the Treasurer of System Change Aotearoa.